Cole trade has chance of working out for Pirates

The initial reaction to the Pirates’ trade of Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros this past Saturday is that Pittsburgh got fleeced.

Not so fast.

Let’s take the emotion out of the equation. While Cole was the Pirates’ No. 1 starter, he is generally not considered a No. 1 starter by most talent evaluators throughout the game.

Yes, Cole went 40-20 with a 3.07 ERA/2.89 FIP in 73 starts during his first three seasons from 2013-15 with 8.5 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings. Over the last two seasons, though, he was 19-22 with a 4.12 ERA/3.81 FIP, 8.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings.

Much of Cole’s struggles last season came from giving up a career-high 31 home runs in 203 innings. While some see that as an aberration, it is easy to envision him struggling in moving to hitter friendly Minute Maid Park from PNC Park, a pitchers’ park.

The Pirates are also getting raked over the coals --- pun intended --- for not receiving any of the Astros’ top prospects, instead opting for a package of right-handers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin.

However, multiple industry sources, claim that no team was willing to get up an elite prospect in deal for Cole. The second-best offer came from the New York Yankees and was centered around outfielder Clint Frazier --- who many evaluators term as “overrated” --- but balked at also adding either right-hander Chance Adams or third baseman Miguel Andujar in the deal.

Thus, the Pirates wound up taking the Astros’ offer and it could turn out very well.

Musgrove started in the 2016 All-Star Futures Game then went 11-12 with a 4.52 ERA/4.31 FIP, 8.0 SO/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 49 games, including 25 starts, with the Astros over the last two seasons. However, the Pirates are enamored by Musgrove’s sinker and plus changeup, giving them hope the 25-year-old has upset.

The 24-year-old Feliz has averaged 12.8 SO/9 in 35 career relief appearances over the last three seasons and multiple evaluators believe he can eventually become a closer. His 3.65 BB/9 is reasonable for a young pitcher who throws hard and Feliz’s 3.67 FIP indicated he has outperformed his 5.13 ERA.

The 25-year-old Moran, the sixth overall pick in the 2013 amateur draft by the Miami Marlins, was considered a bust until he hit .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs in just 79 games last season at Class AAA Fresno. While some attributed Moran’s power surge to repeating the same level, evaluators who saw him regularly say he made adjustments that should help him become a 20-homer player in the major leagues.

While Musgrove, Feliz and Moran figure to be on the opening-day roster, Martin is ticketed for Class AAA Indianapolis following a season in which he hit a combined .278/.332/.487 with 18 home runs and 16 stolen bases with Class AA Corpus Christi and high Class A Buies Creek.

Much has been made about Martin being left unprotected for last month’s Rule 5 Draft then being passed over. However, Rule 5 picks must stay in the big leagues all seasons. Multiple evaluators say Martin won’t be ready for the majors until 2019 but should wind up carving out a potentially long career as a left-handed hitting fourth outfielder.

The Pirates would also have Feliz under contractual control through 2022, Musgrove through 2023 and Moran through 2024.

Cole does not become eligible for free agency until following the 2019 season. Thus, the question is why did the Pirates feel compelled to trade him now rather that at the non-waiver trading deadline in July or next offseason?

I have two potential theories.

No. 1 is the Pirates were afraid Cole might suffer a serious arm injury in the first half of the upcoming season that would kill his trade value. No. 2 is that owner Bob Nutting saw the payroll go over $100 million and told general manager Neal Huntington to get rid of some salary.

My intuition tells me the answer is No. 2. If that is the case, then Huntington knew Cole was his best trade chip and he made a good trade under the circumstances.